deskthority

I originally made a similar post on geekhack where most forummers are US citizens. The response was practically 70% pro Trump, 20% pro Sanders, nearly 10% undeclared and one pro Clinton. Most geekhackers are young white males, so no surprise at the Trump demographic. I was only surprised at how overwhelming it was.

I personally support Trump over all Republicans, Sanders over all Democrats, and pretty much all independent candidates (Bloomberg, Ross Perot, Ralph Nader) and Sanders over Trump. Said so as much in my GH post.

In the past few weeks, the electoral landscape has changed.

It is very likely to be a Trump v Clinton presidential election now. This makes it a really competitive election. Clinton has blacks and most Hispanics in her bag, and 69% of US voters would never vote for Trump. But Trump has energetic supporters who are likely to show up at the election, whereas most anti-Trump people aren’t that fond of Hillary and won’t be making a whole load of effort to vote for her. If the Clinton turnout is 30% (of 69%) and the Trump turnout is 70% of 31%, Trump will win. While this gap looks huge, it is surmountable. The turnout gap in the US between the lowest and highest income quintiles is 30%. When the highest income quintile is not motivated to vote for Clinton, and the lowest quintile is keen on Trump…

Obama beat Romney by 4% of the popular vote in 2012, but carried the vast majority of electoral college votes. Obama’s lead over Romney was strongest among the uneducated and poor, and in urban areas. But this time the situation is different. Trump is way more popular among the poor and uneducated than Clinton. Big cities that have seen massive immigration and globalization erode the wages of the poor, are no longer so democrat friendly. The red states and red zones remain unfriendly to Clinton, but the urban and coastal bases of the democrats are now up for grabs.

Trump has a serious chance of making it to the presidency now, even if his overall appeal is limited. If Trump is the Republican candidate I believe turnout will be significantly (-20%) lower in red areas simply because many Republicans don’t like him. But because most people don’t want to vote for Hillary either, Trump will still win the red states. In contrast, although Hillary is guaranteed the Black and Hispanic vote in urban areas, she has only lukewarm support from educated/wealthy whites, and little from poor/uneducated whites who are now interested in turning out for Trump. Blacks voted more enthusiastically than whites when Obama was a candidate, but traditionally blacks and Hispanics have a far lower turnout than whites. During the 1990s it was reported that blacks voted Clinton – but Clinton drew a low turnout. Now most blacks say they love Hillary – but are they going to come out with the same enthusiasm as they voted for Obama?

I’m guessing that if Trump takes the presidency, it will be with far fewer votes than the 66million that Obama got in 2012/ 60 million that Romney got. I don’t even think Trump will get 50 million votes. The question is whether Hillary Clinton will get even less. She’s probably the least appealing democrat candidate in decades, and hasn’t succeeded in crossing party lines eg getting undecided or Republican women interested in her candidacy.

When Madeline Albright+ Gloria Steinem took to the stage and threatened fire and brimstone on women who didn’t support Hillary Clinton, it was totally like a Republican preacher – and a total turnoff. Young women were disgusted – and this incident reflects how Hillary Clinton is so cozy with establishment interests that she is out of touch with the younger generation. Young women support Bernie Sanders not to meet boys, but because Sanders is sensitive to their economic needs. Trying to pull the gender card just sounds like typical Clinton dirty tricks.

Now I am posting on Deskauthority because there are poll options here. And I know you Europeans absolutely hate Trump. It’s gonna be amusing to me to see you guys struggle to voice support for Clinton over Trump. For me, it is reminiscent of the 1993 Lizard v Wizard election for Louisiana governor. It was David Duke versus some scumbag whose name I can’t remember. IIRC that guy had criminal convictions for fraud and bribery. People voted for that scumbag because they didn’t want David Duke.

But is Clinton such an attractive proposition over Trump? Do you really hate Trump enough to vote for someone like Clinton?

If you define right wing as being ancient regime, being tied to plutocrats and corrupt oligarchs, being establishmentarian, being pro Big Business – Hillary Clinton is far to the right of Donald Trump.

If you define left wing as being multicultural, globalist, pro immigration, then Clinton is far to the left of Donald Trump.

If you define centrist as kissing ass and saying anything to get elected by the largest number of moderate voters, that also sounds like Clinton to me. It just comes across as much more phony than Donald Trump. Which is really saying something, because I don’t consider Trump and his gold painted faux buildings as the epitome of sincerity, solidity or honesty.


I guess it is my general contempt for the Republicans making me say this. But when the Republican elite and old timers start hating on Trump and telling the NYTimes that they don’t want this guy, it makes me want to vote for Trump. And I suspect that if Bernie Sanders is out of the picture, that is exactly what many noncommitted democrats will do. I started out as someone who favored Sanders. But with Bernie Sanders all but out of the picture, what would a Sanders supporter do?

Here are two comments I grabbed from NYT:
CITIZENTM
NYC
As a Sanders support I see only nuanced differences between these candidates - mainly in the way they talk. All would be disastrous - but Trump at least is not beholden to the military contractors.
The DNC - in the grand old fashion of any co-dependent (to Wallstreet) - shoots Itself in the foot by seemingly opting for the candidate that should really run on the Republican ticket.
SHARKIE
Boston 16
Shameful. Awful. I turned it off.

But this "debate" doesn't matter. None of them do.

If Bernie isn't on the ticket this November, I'm voting for Donald Trump. I t doesn't matter how bad these guys are. All that matters to me is voting against Hilary Clinton.


My ideal situation is not a Trump presidency. It is a shake up of the US political establishment. It is to send them a message that it is not cool to have widening income inequality, unlimited mass migration, and unfettered, race to the bottom global competition for wages. Also, Hillary Clinton’s nonstop interventionist foreign policy (see NYT articles for detailed analyses of her Libyan debacle) repulses me. I would like to see that kind of situation where Trump gets 31%, Clinton gets 35%, Bloomberg jumps in as an independent and gets 34%. A poor showing by Clinton would make her think twice about getting into more wars. While the power of the independent/ maverick candidates should make both parties practice some reform and kiss banker ass less, because if they double down on their unpopular ways, they will lose the next election when any independent candidate less divisive than Trump could win.

I would be very amused to see Deskauthoritarians voting 70% for Clinton, 20% fur Drumpf, und 10% undecided. Fortunately I can post a poll, so please vote.

Pretty balanced so far!

Looking forward to being the only "enthusiastic" vote for Hillary. I'm just a liberal, in American terms, not a fully signed up Democrat. I expect her to be just as "disappointing" as Obama. Which is why he didn't disappoint me!

I'm gonna love webwit's reaction to this. I don't think there's an option on there for him.

Well possibly...

Refuse to vote because you despise them both

Definitely Trump over Clinton. Our options are quite bleak this election, but Hillary is essentially a corporation that your voting for and they already have enough power.

Not to mention I would like the first woman president to make women look like effective and noncorrupt leaders.

Bored kbdfr? Come on give me some "Oberschullehrer" grumpyness!

We already know what you'll vote Redmaus! Blazin' Texan.

seebart wrote: I'm gonna love webwit's reaction to this. I don't think there's an option on there for him.

I'm interested if webwit is able to formulate his own option. I don't think he can. Unless solutions in a parallel universe are allowed.

seebart wrote: We already know what you'll vote Redmaus! Blazin' Texan.

Trump is a coin flip. I don't know if he will MAGA or just be terrible.

But with Hillary, you know she won't be good for America. No coin flip there.

berserkfan wrote: If you define right wing as being ancient regime, being tied to plutocrats and corrupt oligarchs, being establishmentarian, being pro Big Business […]

If you define left wing as being multicultural, globalist, pro immigration […]

If you define centrist as kissing ass and saying anything to get elected by the largest number of moderate voters […]

Ohhh boy I am happy that I don't have the burden to vote for one of those failures.
It doesn't even concern me as an EU citizen but it could concern me in the future when Trump accidently starts WW3.

Holy mother of cringe:

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/intern ... rnet_tweet

That's it, America is officially fucked. You had a good run, guys.

cookie wrote: Ohhh boy I am happy that I don't have the burden to vote for one of those failures.

Same here.

cookie wrote: It doesn't even concern me as an EU citizen but it could concern me in the future when Trump accidently starts WW3.

I don't think it will be that bad. Let's hope he gets some good "advisers".

"Today, people living in Bucharest, Romania, have access to much faster Internet than most of the US. That's unacceptable and must change," he posted.

WTF? I not sure I believe that quote. He's not that stupid. Why would anyone post that? And why on earth Romania?

Hahahah

Bernie definitely isn't one of my favored candidates. His whole campaign is essentially "free shit guys"

Romania is also a small country where infrastructure can happen faster. Compare that to the vastness of the united states.

berserkfan wrote: I originally made a similar post on geekhack where most forummers are US citizens. The response was practically 70% pro Trump, 20% pro Sanders, nearly 10% undeclared and one pro Clinton. Most geekhackers are young white males, so no surprise at the Trump demographic. I was only surprised at how overwhelming it was.

Holy crap. I understand the aversion towards Clinton, but 70% pro Trump ? I really can't get my head around why this guy is so popular. Sure, he's a big loudmouth and some may find his antics refreshing but that's a presidential election we're talking about, not some random TV freak show.

Matt_ wrote:

berserkfan wrote: I really can't get my head around why this guy is so popular.

Because he tells people what they want to hear and keeps it very simple. No complex boring stuff. And because he's an outsider that stands for change.

Honestly I think that Sanders is the least abhorrent candidate. But that's not saying much.

What Seebart said, and also think about who we have had for the past 8 years. A democrat.

After a democratic candidate, people want a republican to turn the tide.

seebart wrote:

Matt_ wrote:

berserkfan wrote: I really can't get my head around why this guy is so popular.

Because he tells people what they want to hear and keeps it very simple. No complex boring stuff. And because he's an outsider that stands for change.

Sure but... does every Trump partisan fall for this? I mean, that's low-grade populism. I'd love to know how many do and how many are just fed up with politicians and want to stir up the hornet's nest.

Redmaus wrote: What Seebart said, and also think about who we have had for the past 8 years. A democrat.

After a democratic candidate, people want a republican to turn the tide.

Yes that's also a big factor. Obama went from a prophet like figure of hope to a hated looser. Biggest drop in popularity I've seen in a long time.

seebart wrote:

Redmaus wrote: What Seebart said, and also think about who we have had for the past 8 years. A democrat.

After a democratic candidate, people want a republican to turn the tide.

Yes that's also a big factor. Obama went from a prophet like figure of hope to a hated looser. Biggets drop in popularity I've seen in a long time.

Check out the last two French presidents, their popularity went down even quicker

(incidentally, we also have the same kind of populists taking over the political arena, except they're not just clowns, they're far-right clowns)

Matt_ wrote: Sure but... does every Trump partisan fall for this? I mean, that's low-grade populism.

it appears to be working

Redmaus wrote: Definitely Trump over Clinton. Our options are quite bleak this election, but Hillary is essentially a corporation that your voting for and they already have enough power.

Not to mention I would like the first woman president to make women look like effective and noncorrupt leaders.

Hillary would be effective. She just won't be effective for low income Americans.

I find it very irritating that so many people think Trump will start WW3. No he won't. He is not owned by the US military industrial complex. For all his flaws, he prefers to play Sim City and Monopoly.

Hillary is part of the US military industrial complex, and she has supported an interventionist and hawkish foreign policy. She's the drone operator here. Most of the aggressive stuff that 'Obama' did was actually pushed by Clinton.

Oh I know my French neighbors Matt_. Hollande is having a hard time while the le pen clan get's louder and a certain Nicolas is lingering in the background for a comeback? The biggest clown you have is Gérard Depardieu. Good actor though.

Redmaus wrote: […] Bernie definitely isn't one of my favored candidates. His whole campaign is essentially "free shit guys"[…]

What a superficial crap!
Have you ever heard anything he said, as opposed to what others said about him?

Sanders seems like the only sane person running for the office.

Hillary feels like a hawk waiting to return favours and Trump? I don't even know. Really. He's just insane, so either he'll get drunk and talk shit while other people pick up the pieces or start another war. Who knows?

kbdfr wrote:

What a superficial crap!
Have you ever heard anything he said, as opposed to what others said about him?

I make that assumption based off his supporters and what I have seen on his website. Looks like a lot of race baiting to me. He will leave the country's economy in the worst shape compared to the other candidates.

Did you watch Mitt Romney's recent speech that I linked Redmaus? If so your thoughts on that? I mean that's another Republican with very strong words.

Hillary race-baits far worse than Sanders. Poor white people, were they not so conservative, would rally behind him too.

If I had a choice between Hillary, Sanders, and Trump... I would probably choose Sanders. He's so far to the left in some of his policy that it would never make it past the legislature (which I think is excellent), but enough of his reasonable ideas would slip by to do a bit of good. I'm not a socialist, but I'm not a hardcore laissez-faire capitalist either.

It irks me to no end that stock dividends aren't taxed like normal income, and I think he'd do something about it.

On the other hand... If it came down to Hillary and Trump, god forbid, I would probably vote Trump. Reasoning? Hillary has made all kinds of bad judgment calls behind the scenes. She likes keeping things under wraps. Trump's belligerence and showboating would likely follow him to the oval office. If he makes mistakes in the open, the American people and legislature could do something about it. He's also likely to be impeached, which is good. If he naturally selects himself out of office, his running mate (who is hopefully a reasonable man) could take over.

Chris Christie = Frank Underwood

@seebart. I can't watch on school WiFi. I'll check it out later.

But I do have to agree that Hillary does it far more than Sanders, which is why she has the black vote.

And it is a very good thing that congress won't allow some of Sanders far left ideas

Christie is a pitiful Frank Underwood. Did you see the faces he was making after endorsing Trump? Mr. Underwood would have a vainglorious, shit eating grin. Not a grimace.