deskthority

I've been thinking about the evolution of computers and connection types. USB may be the leading connector for many HID and external devices now but I think this may not be the case in 10, 15 years time. Generally the life of a connector on a computer is roughly 10-20 years. However there are some that last longer depending on their importance. ease of use and reliability. e.g. PS/2 What comes next? What is after USB?

new versions of USB. always faster with more features, and backwards compatible.

I don't see it become obsolete anytime soon. It is a simple serial bus with power, which can be used for anything.

Wireless.

webwit wrote:Wireless.

+1

Thunderbolt. You can send pretty much anything over it.

Djuzuh wrote:[USB] ... It is a simple serial bus with power, which can be used for anything.

Far from "simple" and "used for anything".

I guess it depends on a few factors.
Wireless is great, but if the device draws too much power and battery technology keeps lagging (like it is right now) some devices like webcams will still need a direct line.
Wifi is already making usb unnecessary for things like printers.

The question in the end is not, "is it possible?" but "do people want to pay for it/do they trust it?"
In some recent research I did the technology was there, the cost was not much higher than the contemporary alternative but people did not trust it because it had gone wrong some time ago. The extra checking they deemed necessary made the whole proces more expensive and slower than the old one.

Same goes for microphones. Do you really want an expensive wireless mic if you can get a cheap one that works just as well?

woody wrote:

Djuzuh wrote:[USB] ... It is a simple serial bus with power, which can be used for anything.

Far from "simple" and "used for anything".

for the end user it is . You can use hubs freely, it's only 4 wires if you want/need to modify/create some cables, etc…

Also, I'm curious, what can't it be used or?

Djuzuh wrote:for the end user it is . You can use hubs freely

Unless you bump into problems introduced by hubs/software.

it's only 4 wires if you want/need to modify/create some cables, etc…

I wouldn't recommend messing with USB 2.0 cables, even less so with USB 3.0 - they're impedance matched.

Also, I'm curious, what can't it be used or?

Generally, there is always trade-off between speed, latency and bunch of other stuff, so you can't have one-size-fits-all interface.
My biggest gripe with USB is reliability. Partly because of the design, mostly because of implementations. But that is way outside the scope of keyboards/pointing devices.

486 wrote:What is after USB?

Easy, magic!

Unfortunately what 'standard' will actually come next as the new big thing will depend on marketing and bureaucracy and not whats technically superior..... but it will probably be some form of PoW (power over wireless technology).

Brian8bit wrote:Thunderbolt. You can send pretty much anything over it.

eh, thunderbolt cables arn't as flexiable and most devices that use usb don't need that kind of transfer speed, i think most things will go USB and lightpeak/thunderbolt will be mostly for just storage, monitors and maybe gaming mice ?

baldgye wrote:

Brian8bit wrote:Thunderbolt. You can send pretty much anything over it.

eh, thunderbolt cables arn't as flexiable and most devices that use usb don't need that kind of transfer speed, i think most things will go USB and lightpeak/thunderbolt will be mostly for just storage, monitors and maybe gaming mice ?

May i ask - just out of curiosity - how 'gaming mice' fit into the summary above... Is it just because of the oblivious susceptibility to marketing of the target audience?

Maarten wrote:

baldgye wrote:

Brian8bit wrote:Thunderbolt. You can send pretty much anything over it.

eh, thunderbolt cables arn't as flexiable and most devices that use usb don't need that kind of transfer speed, i think most things will go USB and lightpeak/thunderbolt will be mostly for just storage, monitors and maybe gaming mice ?

May i ask - just out of curiosity - how 'gaming mice' fit into the summary above... Is it just because of the oblivious susceptibility to marketing of the target audience?

Pretty much... its like mice with a DPI of over 9000 like really... who uses that? Or mice with over 9000 diffrent colour options for the light on it...

The problem with Thunderbolt is that it lacks momentum, and it is NOT a cheap standard to implement.

I could see it working as a replacement for ExpressCard, but I think it's falling into the same trap as FireWire - awesomely fast, and not actually proprietary, but Apple's the only one that seriously uses it.

USB has a ton of momentum, and in 10 years, I could easily see it still being around in some incarnation as a moderately fast bus for attaching peripherals. Nothing's even on the horizon to replace it except for Thunderbolt, after all.

bhtooefr wrote:The problem with Thunderbolt is that it lacks momentum, and it is NOT a cheap standard to implement.

I could see it working as a replacement for ExpressCard, but I think it's falling into the same trap as FireWire - awesomely fast, and not actually proprietary, but Apple's the only one that seriously uses it.

USB has a ton of momentum, and in 10 years, I could easily see it still being around in some incarnation as a moderately fast bus for attaching peripherals. Nothing's even on the horizon to replace it except for Thunderbolt, after all.

tbh the most exciting prospect about lightpeak/thunderbolt is its possbilities internally. Having a PC use optics instead of electricity to connect all major components would be awesome

I think thunderbolt will have a chance once it is native to motherboard and won't need an add on card. I know that is planned for Intel Haswell platform next year. A lot of people just won't buy add on card, and until it has gotten some distance from being Apple only prices won't start going down much either. Perhaps it will be a more common option in the coming years, but it will need some convincing for many to see any advantage over usb3 in most scenario.

The other thing to prevent consumer confusion will be, there'll need to be a good way to route video from an external GPU to those Thunderbolt connectors.

Or, just put the Thunderbolt transceiver on the GPU itself and be done with it.

True, I could see GPU makers just dump displayport for thunderbolt since it hasn't gained much traction and Apple already did the same more or less.

Apple's not really done the same yet, though.

The current implementations are all using mobile GPUs soldered to the motherboard, so the Thunderbolt controller can use PCIe lanes of its own, whereas a desktop implementation will require the Thunderbolt controller to "steal" PCIe lanes from the GPU. This'll be better once a PCIe 3.0-compatible Thunderbolt controller comes out, simply because less lanes could be stolen for the same performance (right now, 4 lanes are stolen.)

lysol wrote:I think thunderbolt will have a chance once it is native to motherboard and won't need an add on card. I know that is planned for Intel Haswell platform next year. A lot of people just won't buy add on card, and until it has gotten some distance from being Apple only prices won't start going down much either. Perhaps it will be a more common option in the coming years, but it will need some convincing for many to see any advantage over usb3 in most scenario.

What are you talking about? As far as I am aware there is no such product on the market and Thunderbolt cannot be implemented via PCIe cards at this time and probably not in the near future. Also, a motherboard with an onboard Thunderbolt port already exists for Sandy/Ivy Bridge and is made by Asus, the model is P8Z77-V Premium.

Oh, well excuse me for not being up on Asus product, don't really pay much attention to them. Last time I saw something they were talking about add on card.

I have to point out that thunderbolt is an external interface to you main memory. Direct access, no security. Your computer comes pre-hacked.

(Same as firewire.)