I've had my eye on that promised EU exit referendum ever since Cameron promised it. The highly active Yes voters who painted Scotland SNP yellow the other week will definitely vote to stay in the EU, in large numbers. But, as always, England chooses the outcome. They make up 88% of Britain's population, and opinion there is much less energised. I imagine it'll all come down to turnout. UKIP wins every European Parliament election down there with ease, but those are low interest, right-wing pensioner dominated affairs. If only that crowd is bothered on the day, then Britain will be torn out of Europe. While Scotland votes the other way!Mal-2 wrote:Maybe if UKIP succeeds and gets its Brexit, that will be sufficient motivation to push a closely split populace over the line. Then your teacher may be only half-right, and NI may be going with you.
UKIP's in a mess right now, with the knives out for its leadership after that brutal election result of 1 single MP for them. Meanwhile Cameron (and maybe half the Tories), Labour, the Greens, and the Liberals (if they're still around) will all campaign to stay in. It really is a high risk game. I wonder if they'll put a minimum turnout clause in the referendum to give themselves a safety net? Not that even this would save them from a successful campaign by the highly anti-EU media.
The SNP consider the result to be a valid trigger to run the Scottish Independence referendum again. Though, as one of their former leaders said back on election night: the SNP's goal is not just to hold a referendum, but to win! They'll be keeping a close eye on the polls to see the kind of numbers they want: well over 50% for Yes, maybe more like 60%. Forced expulsion for Scotland from the EU is just the kind of event that could turn public opinion like that.
One problem remains: the SNP in the Scottish Parliament can't run a legally binding referendum by themselves. 2014's referendum was actually granted by an act of parliament in London, with Cameron's agreement. He's said he'll never let a second one happen. So technically what we might end up with is Scots voting in another referendum at some point that isn't legally binding. It would be up to London whether they accepted the result or not. Could get messy. But then leaving Europe is bloody messy business already!
I look forward to the checkpoints between Berwick and Carlisle on the Scotland-England border. No campaigners were always banging on about those, as an example of the OMG INSANITY! of separate nations. But would independent England accept anything less if Scotland remains in the EU, with all our filthy pan European migrants? They're welcome to pay for it.
